Robert Cahaly is the chief pollster with the Trafalgar Group, which RealClearPolitics’ co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, called “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” because of its predictions in the last two political cycles.
In 2016, Cahaly showed Trump winning both Pennsylvania and Michigan. His polls also showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading his Democrat challenger, Andrew Gillum, in 2018’s gubernatorial race.
While Cahaly said he is “not even debating” if Joe Biden will secure the popular vote, he believes Trump is “likely” to enjoy another victory in the Electoral College due to the “hidden Trump votes out there.”
“We live in a country where people will lie to their accountant, they’ll lie to their doctor, they’ll lie to their priest,” Cahaly explained. “And we’re supposed to believe they shed all of that when they get on the telephone with a stranger?”
When asked what he would say to voters who believe the election is locked up for Biden, Cahaly emphasized his belief in “hidden” Trump voters.
“I don’t think it’s done. Some of these national polls are not even taking into consideration the fact that Republicans have closed the gap with voter registrations,” he said, adding that they are not “taking into account the number of low-propensity voters who are voting and who will vote on Election Day.”
“I don’t think they’re measuring people’s genuine opinions. And I think [pollsters] are just not going to see it coming,” he said.