Read the papers and watch TV and the MSM is ramming down our throats that the presidential race won’t be close. Can you say wishful thinking?
The Wall Street Journal just published an analysis demonstrating if President Trump taps into a particular resource he can potential a huge number of votes.
Seems there was a sizable faction of Trump supporters in 2016 (try millions). But they stayed home. What if they actually went to the polls come November?
This group would be the white working class, Trump’s biggest fans. The Wall Street Journal takes it from here:
Assuming the same turnout rates as in 2016, about 62% of Michigan’s nonvoters this year, or 1.6 million people, would be white residents without a four-year college degree, according to an analysis of census data by William Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer. In Pennsylvania, white residents without degrees also would account for about 62% of nonvoters, or 2.1 million residents. In Wisconsin, they would account for 67% of nonvoters, or more than 800,000 people. Mr. Trump won each of the three states by a margin of less than 1 percentage point.
Those pools of potential voters are so large that even a modest increase in turnout would give a significant boost to Mr. Trump, assuming that he maintained his high, 60%-plus share of their vote from the last election. Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls over the January-to-July period show his support has held at about 60% among these voters.
What could it all mean? Lots.
Should Mr. Trump manage to drive turnout among white non-college voters to Mr. Bush’s high levels of 2004, Mr. Frey’s analysis shows that the electorate would grow by some 222,000 additional voters in Michigan, 175,000 in Wisconsin and 130,000 in Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump won the three states by a combined 78,000 votes.
Read the Wall Street Journal here (subscription required).